Longevity of the settlement will rely fully on 2024 Lok Sabha election outcomes
Bengaluru:
Whereas each Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar have been within the working for the Karnataka Chief Minister’s put up, it was clear from the beginning that Siddaramaiah had the sting. Karnataka Congress president DK Shivakumar labored extraordinarily onerous, invested monumental effort and assets and has an enormous stake within the Congress victory, however he must bide his time.
It should be emphasised that the longevity of the settlement labored out will rely fully on the 2024 Lok Sabha election outcomes, each in Karnataka and nationally.
Listed here are some key the reason why the scales are firmly tilted in favour of the previous Chief Minister, and in addition why it’s a profitable deal for DK Shivakumar
1. DK Shivakumar faces Earnings Tax and Enforcement Directorate instances regarding belongings disproportionate to identified sources of earnings. There’s a sturdy risk that the BJP would aggressively pursue these instances. The optics of a chief minister ambushed by such instances may very well be detrimental to the Congress forward of the 2024 elections, particularly because the occasion has gained on a robust “40 p.c sarkar” marketing campaign that targeted on corruption allegations in opposition to the outgoing BJP authorities.
Even whereas the Congress was confabulating on who will probably be Chief Minister, the Supreme Court docket deferred its listening to on the CBI’s plea in opposition to a Karnataka Excessive Court docket order granting an interim keep on the probe into DK Shivakumar’s alleged unlawful wealth. This can be a reminder that the instances are alive and there’s a shadow over him. This was all the time a significant and decisive issue in opposition to him within the race for the highest job in Karnataka.
2. Siddaramaiah is the tallest mass chief amongst the newly elected legislators in Karnataka. His enchantment cuts throughout the completely different areas of Karnataka and he has all the time had the assist of a majority of the occasion’s MLAs. His stature and expertise of getting accomplished a full time period have been firmly in his favor. The truth is, he would have been the apparent alternative, had it not been for the sturdy problem from the state Congress president. The truth is, many former cupboard ministers have been firmly in favour of Siddaramaiah as he’s a examined administrator.
3. On condition that DK Shivakumar is from the OBC Vokkaliga caste, by naming him Chief Minister the Congress might have alienated different caste teams from the occasion. After its emphatic victory within the polls, with a historic vote share of over 42 p.c that would come with all social sections, the Congress couldn’t threat alienating non-Vokkaliga voices.
Siddaramaiah’s appointment might not go down nicely with the Vokkaliga caste teams, however a strong lodging for Shivakumar as his deputy might offset that unfavorable. The converse would not have labored.
4. The scales have been firmly in favour of Siddaramaiah, however it was Shivakumar’s onerous bargaining that pressured the Congress to make an exception to the “one man, one put up” rule and let Shivakumar proceed because the state Congress president and Deputy Chief Minister.
This provides him appreciable affect over the cupboard and a agency maintain over the occasion.
5. Mr Shivakumar can be anticipated to get some key portfolios for himself and people near him. That is to make sure that the facility steadiness within the cupboard isn’t skewed.
6. Throughout Siddaramiah’s earlier time period (2013-2018), he refused to even induct DK Shivakumar within the cupboard for the primary 12 months. There was a way that Siddaramaiah is authoritarian, and veteran occasion leaders, together with Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, have been sidelined from state affairs.
In some ways, Mr Shivakumar’s robust discount, backed by some senior leaders, was primarily targeted on containing Siddaramaiah’s management. Whereas they knew he was more likely to win the race, they needed to ensure he did not have full management. This goal appears to have been achieved and Mr Shivakumar is poised to be a robust pressure within the cupboard and the occasion. This additionally makes certain that after the 2024 polls, if a change needs to be enforced, the facility steadiness isn’t tilted firmly in direction of the Chief Minister.
Arguably, the Congress has managed to discover a resolution that is the very best final result for each contenders. Nonetheless, each Siddaramaiah and Mr Shivakumar are from the Previous Mysore area and the problem for the Congress now could be to have illustration from all areas and social teams within the cupboard. These optics are important within the run-up to 2024.
Finally, a 12 months is a really very long time in Indian politics and this compromise method could also be revisited after the 2024 polls.
