MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s excessive bouts. Proper this second time, we discover on the well-known card for UFC Try in opposition to Night 224.
UFC Try in opposition to Night 224 takes bid Saturday on the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The cardboard streams on ESPN+.
Remaining match’s outcomes: 3-2
Whole picks for UFC vital playing cards in 2023: 42-38-3
Welcome to MMAJunkie’s Fleet Picks and Prognostications, the set aside I’ll be giving rapid, combat-day breakdowns for UFC vital playing cards.
With that in ideas, I hope these write-united states of americadon’t attain off as curt or dismissive, as my intention proper right here is to offer rapid picks and evaluation in a digestible construction. All odds listed are equipped by Tipico Sportsbook.
Whenever you’d love additional detailed evaluation from me, then actually be happy to take a look at out my weekly repeat, The Protect Ya’ Neck Podcast.
So, with out further ado…
Diego Ferreira (-165) vs. Michael Johnson (+135)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MAY 19: (L-R) Opponents Diego Ferreira of Brazil and Michael Johnson face off all through the UFC weigh-in at Santa Fe Residing Resort and On line on line casino on May properly additionally merely 19, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Document by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs)
I’m not apparent if Joe Silva snuck support into the bid of job this week, nevertheless it utterly’s good to look the standard lightweights opening up vital playing cards over again.
On this enjoyable kinds match, now we rating Diego Ferreira, who’s making an attempt to snap a 3-combat shedding skid reverse southpaw staple, Michael Johnson.
Johnson has traditionally struggled with pressuring submission grapplers, so I utterly label why Ferreira is appreciated coming into this contest (particularly inner of the smaller octagon).
That acknowledged, Ferreira is formally 0-3 inner of the UFC APEX and 1-3 in opposition to UFC-stage southpaws.
🧵 #TheSouthpawReport for #UFCVegas73:
• Diego Ferreira is 1-3 reverse UFC-stage southpaws (W: OAM; L: Dariush x2, Poirier) however moreover fought stance-switchers Pettis & Gamrot (1-1)
CDF reveals outside-foot consciousness and likes to shift to suppose stance however struggles w/SP counters: pic.twitter.com/zRqjnqRyq7
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May properly additionally merely 19, 2023
Add in Ferreira’s low takedown actual wanting and the undeniable fact that he has the propensity to get harm to the physique, and I’ll’t attend however take a flier on Johnson to attain support to set aside with a significant-spherical compose by way of a check out upright hook.
Andre Fialho (+185) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-225)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MAY 19: (L-R) Opponents Andre Fialho of Portugal and Joaquin Buckley face off all through the UFC weigh-in at Santa Fe Residing Resort and On line on line casino on May properly additionally merely 19, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Document by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs)
Filling out the well-known card is a seemingly welterweight battle between Andre Fialho and Joaquin Buckley.
Buckley is making his return to the burden class, whereas Fialho is making an attempt to stop the bleeding of a two-combat shedding skid.
Each males aren’t past getting harm in victory or defeat, however I choose that Buckley is the additional sturdy event with the marginally higher gasoline tank in tow. Fialho, who’s formally 0-1 reverse UFC-stage southpaws, may probably maybe additionally moreover rating bother with Buckley’s shot chance.
• Andre Fialho, who faces Joaquin Buckley at #UFCVegas73, is 0-1 reverse UFC-stage southpaws (Chris Curtis)
Fialho confirmed loyal ideas in opposition to a SP by straightforward the utilization of his jab to attend self-discipline up vitality pictures, however Curtis’ SP counters and bodywork broke him down by rd 3. #TheSouthpawReport pic.twitter.com/uoNxyB2e41
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May properly additionally merely 19, 2023
The choose is Buckley to dwell to inform the story some scares within the first in say to knock Fialho out with a injurious-hook combination in spherical two.
Emily Ducote (+130) vs. Crazy Godinez (-160)
LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – MAY 19: (L-R) Opponents Emily Ducote and Crazy Godinez of Mexico face off all through the UFC weigh-in at Santa Fe Residing Resort and On line on line casino on May properly additionally merely 19, 2023 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Document by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs)
No topic on the muse being scheduled to fight Polyana Viana this Saturday, Emily Ducote will now meet Crazy Godinez at a catchweight of 120 kilos.
It’s straightforward disturbing to grab what precisely you’re gonna get with Godinez, however I believe that the minute cage will attend encourage the Mexican fighter’s pressuring sensibilities.
That acknowledged, Ducote comes from a wrestling heinous and carries a murky belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, so I’m not apparent how grand success Godinez will rating when wrestling.
It’s not a assured choose, however I’ll take a flier on Ducote to edge out not less than 2 scorecards alongside along with her superior methodology and counters.
Anthony Hernandez (-210) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (+170)
The co-significant match in Las Vegas elements a middleweight come upon between Anthony Hernandez and Edmen Shahbazyan.
Hernandez perceived to attain discovered his space of curiosity as a relentless chain grappler, whereas Shahbazyan seems to be to be convalescing from a string of setbacks since shifting his teaching over to Las Vegas.
• Anthony Hernandez is formally 2-0 within the UFC APEX cage (and likewise has a accumulate within the venerable TUF cage that acquired overturned to a no contest). His #UFCVegas73 opponent Edmen Shahbazyan in the intervening time stands at 0-3 throughout the APEX cage (and likewise had a strong fight at The Pearl vs. Stewart).
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May properly additionally merely 18, 2023
Even once I wouldn’t be shocked to look Shahbazyan harm Hernandez to the physique early, I within the kill rating a disturbing time entering into opposition to the superior grappler and the person with a additional confirmed course of inner of the smaller cage.
The choose is Hernandez by third-spherical submission (arm-in guillotine/boa choke).
Mackenzie Dern (-175) vs. Angela Hill (+145)
The precept match on ESPN+ elements a strawweight showdown between Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill.
As talked about in my in-depth breakdown, I actually leaned towards Hill when this fight modified into as quickly as on the muse self-discipline to occur in a laws-sized octagon in Charlotte.
However, after this fight getting shifted to the smaller octagon of the UFC APEX, I now choose that the stylistic edge resides with Dern.
🧵 Some entertaining minute cage stats earlier than #UFCVegas73:
• Mackenzie Dern is formally 4-2 within the smaller smaller APEX octagon, the set aside Angela Hill in the intervening time sits at 1-3
— Dan Tom (@DanTomMMA) May properly additionally merely 18, 2023
Nonetheless, it’s disturbing to brush aside the elephant within the room in regard to Dern’s admitted struggles within the lead-up to this fight (one factor I modified into as quickly as not aware of when locking in my prediction). For that cause, I don’t blame any individual for taking Hill on this area.
No topic being the older fighter, Hill has confirmed strong enhancements in her counter wrestling that need to be acknowledged. Whereas Dern, who modified into as quickly as gifted an dreadful decision in a fight the set aside she modified into as quickly as clearly outstruck by Tecia Torres, may probably maybe additionally with out points be winless in her remaining three fights.
Nonetheless I digress.
My coronary heart is with Hill, however I’ll comply with my preliminary prediction of Dern by 2nd-spherical submission.
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